Wind Energy Forecasting

Manage wind project operations while maximizing power production, improving integration, reducing imbalance charges, and trading in real-time, day-ahead, and other forward energy markets.

See also - Regional Wind Energy Forecasting

Wind Power Forecast Tools

  • Hour-ahead forecast for power
  • Day-ahead forecast for power
  • Week-ahead forecast for power
  • Downloadable forecast data files
  • System status tool

Weather Forecast Tools

  • Meteograms for air temperature, precipitation, and hub height wind speed
  • Downloadable forecast data files

Verification Tools

  • Hourly and Daily Time Series Verification
  • Hourly Horizon Time Verification
  • Wind Error Histogram
  • Wind Cumulative Advantage
  • Wind Power Curve Verification
  • Wind Recent Performance

Rewind Tool

  • See how forecasts are evolving over time by comparing the current forecast with previous predictions.

Optional Features

  • An Outage Scheduler allows Vaisala to incorporate planned curtailments into the forecast.
  • MOS-correction can be applied to improve forecast accuracy and reduce bias when at least one year of historical met tower or power production data is available.
  • A Seasonal Wind Power Forecast can be added to your wind forecast, which projects 12 months into the future and is based on 40 years of site-specific climatology and climate index forecasts.
  • An Multi-Forecast Tool allows you to view an aggregate forecast of all your wind projects and perform scenario analysis by clicking specific projects and sub-regions 'on or off.'
  • An API is also available for faster integration of downloadable forecast data into your internal analysis tools and programming software.

Delivery Method

Forecasting tools are delivered via a client-specific dashboard interface and accompanied by data files available in multiple formats (CSV, XML, XLS).

Methodology

Aligned with Vaisala's belief in using proven, state-of-the-art modeling technologies to solve forecasting problems, our high-resolution forecast system is a combination of advanced statistical algorithms, highly customized mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, self-learning artificial intelligence models, and publicly available weather forecasts, including data from the US National Weather Service as well as other global weather forecast centers. Our model also incorporates the climatology and terrain for your project location using diurnal variability averages on a monthly time-scale and can incorporate real-time data from your project and met tower as well as thousands of surface weather stations.

Customer Requirements

In order to provide wind forecasting, Vaisala must be supplied with meta data for your project such as: time zone, project location, hub height, turbine model, naming conventions, and other identifiers for met towers and turbines.

For data integration, the skill of the hour-ahead forecasts greatly depends on the timely receipt of high-quality, real-time observations from the client. While hour-ahead forecasts can be provided without observations, the quality of this forecast is greatly improved with real-time data including: project power output, turbine availability, and near hub height wind conditions from met towers. To facilitate the transfer of real-time data, Vaisala will work with you to set up an automated and robust way of transferring this information.

Features
Advanced forecast system powered by weather and data science
Customizable dashboard interface
Guaranteed 24/7 availability
Security. Easily set your own permissions system for access to forecast information with usernames and passwords for every forecast tool.
Secure password protected web host server for all data transfers
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Key Benefits

Accuracy
Access accurate hour, day, and week-ahead predictions with Vaisala's powerful forecast system. We use highly customized numerical weather prediction models, neural networks, real-time data feeds of site observations, thousands of real-time surface observations, and machine learning to deliver the most precise forecasts possible. Advanced verification tools also allow you to see exactly how our forecasts are performing, risk-adjust transactions, and access an unprecedented amount of historical forecast data.
Usability
Forecast information is delivered through a customizable dashboard interface, which includes easily interpreted graphics of wind production and other environmental conditions. Downloadable power and weather forecast data files offer easy integration with your own internal software and scheduling systems and can even be delivered through our API.
Customer support from weather experts
In today's competitive market, hiring a team of meteorologists and developing your own proprietary forecasting system isn't a practical solution for most companies. Our subscription model delivers an extremely high level of accuracy through an advanced forecasting system that is continually improved by an in-house team of scientists, all of whom are client facing.