Regional Wind Energy Forecasting

Our Regional Wind Forecast is designed to give energy traders, schedulers, and asset managers the critical information they need to reduce risk and make day-to-day financial and operational decisions with confidence. Supported by cutting-edge science and robust super-computing capabilities, our hour, day, and week-ahead forecasts enable you to bid into forward markets and proactively manage your assets based on scientifically supported predictions rather than reacting to real time constraints.​​

See also - [Site-Specific] Wind Energy Forecasting

Product Features

Hour-Ahead Forecasts

  • Update interval depends on frequency of observations​
  • 1 hour granularity

Day-Ahead Forecasts

  • Updates 4 times per day
  • 84 hour projection
  • 1 hour granularity

Week-Ahead Forecasts

  • Updates once daily
  • 168 hour projection
  • 1 hour granularity

Verification Tools

  • Hourly and Daily Time Series Verification
  • Hourly Horizon Time Verification
  • Wind Error Histogram
  • Wind Recent Performance

Multi-Forecast Tool​

  • Click specific projects and sub-regions 'on or off', view different forecasts side-by-side, and see how forecasts are evolving over time by comparing the current forecast with previous predictions.

Forecasts include hourly values for aggregate power in megawatts, generating cap​​​acity by percentage, and aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed.

Optional Features

  • Where aggregate power data is available, Vaisala can apply model output statistics (MOS) to the model simulations, reducing overall forecast error and correcting forecast biases. The forecasted and observed power for a specified time horizon is shown as an easy to interpret time-series graphic.
  • An API is also available for faster integration of downloadable forecast data into your internal analysis tools and programming software.

Available Regions​

  • BPA
  • Cal-ISO
  • MISO
  • ERCOT
  • PJM
  • AESO
  • OIESO
  • SPP
  • Spain
  • UK
  • Germany​

Delivery Method

Forecasting tools are delivered via a client-specific, dashboard interface. Downloadable data files are provided in a comma-separated value (CSV) format to allow easy integration with your own internal systems.

Product Highlights

  • Guaranteed 24/7 availability
  • User defined sub-regions
  • Customizable dashboard interface
  • Security. Easily set up your own permissions system with usernames and passwords for access to information. A secure password protected web host server is also provided for all data transfers.
  • Scalability. Our model and data hardware will continually adapt as new wind projects come online and new data becomes available to ensure the highest forecasting accuracy.

Methodology

Inputs

  • Project latitude and longitude
  • Nameplate capacity
  • Turbine make and model
  • Site in-service date
  • User-defined sub-group specification
  • Aggregate power observations

Outputs

  • Aggregate power (MW)
  • Generating capacity (%)
  • Aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed (m/s)

Aligned with Vaisala's commitment to using state-of-the-art, proven, and transparent methods, our regional wind forecast system is a combination of publicly available global and regional weather forecasts, high resolution surface data, and highly customized mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The result is an aggregate wind speed forecast converted into real world values of hourly power generation in megawatts using asset-specific manufacturer power curve data. Where aggregate power data is publicly available, Vaisala will incorporate observations to deliver statistically corrected power forecasts.

Customer Requirements

In order to provide regional wind power forecasting, Vaisala only requires you to select your region of interest and provide sub-region geographic boundary specifications or wind project lists.

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Key Benefits

Timely forecasts and quick integration with your systems
Hour-, day-, and week-ahead forecasts are delivered via our online dashboard and as downloadable data files to transition easily into your own internal systems. An API is also available for even faster integration of forecast data into your internal analysis tools and programming software.
Accuracy
We offer the highest forecast accuracy by leveraging state-of-the-art, proven, and transparent methods. Our regional wind forecast system is powered by a combination of customized numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, publicly available global and regional weather forecasts, high resolution surface data, and machine learning to deliver aggregate wind speed and power forecasts across an entire region.
Scalability
Our model and data hardware will continually adapt as new wind projects come online and new data becomes available to ensure the highest forecasting accuracy.

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