Regional Wind Energy Forecasting
Regional Wind Energy Forecasting
Our Regional Wind Forecast is designed to give energy traders, schedulers, and asset managers the critical information they need to reduce risk and make day-to-day financial and operational decisions with confidence. Supported by cutting-edge science and robust super-computing capabilities, our hour, day, and week-ahead forecasts enable you to bid into forward markets and proactively manage your assets based on scientifically supported predictions rather than reacting to real time constraints.
See also - [Site-Specific] Wind Energy Forecasting
Key Benefits
Overview
Product Features
Hour-Ahead Forecasts
- Update interval depends on frequency of observations
- 1 hour granularity
Day-Ahead Forecasts
- Updates 4 times per day
- 84 hour projection
- 1 hour granularity
Week-Ahead Forecasts
- Updates once daily
- 168 hour projection
- 1 hour granularity
Verification Tools
- Hourly and Daily Time Series Verification
- Hourly Horizon Time Verification
- Wind Error Histogram
- Wind Recent Performance
Multi-Forecast Tool
- Click specific projects and sub-regions 'on or off', view different forecasts side-by-side, and see how forecasts are evolving over time by comparing the current forecast with previous predictions.
Forecasts include hourly values for aggregate power in megawatts, generating capacity by percentage, and aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed.
Optional Features
- Where aggregate power data is available, Vaisala can apply model output statistics (MOS) to the model simulations, reducing overall forecast error and correcting forecast biases. The forecasted and observed power for a specified time horizon is shown as an easy to interpret time-series graphic.
- An API is also available for faster integration of downloadable forecast data into your internal analysis tools and programming software.
Available Regions
- BPA
- Cal-ISO
- MISO
- ERCOT
- PJM
- AESO
- OIESO
- SPP
- Spain
- UK
- Germany
Delivery Method
Forecasting tools are delivered via a client-specific, dashboard interface. Downloadable data files are provided in a comma-separated value (CSV) format to allow easy integration with your own internal systems.
Product Highlights
- Guaranteed 24/7 availability
- User defined sub-regions
- Customizable dashboard interface
- Security. Easily set up your own permissions system with usernames and passwords for access to information. A secure password protected web host server is also provided for all data transfers.
- Scalability. Our model and data hardware will continually adapt as new wind projects come online and new data becomes available to ensure the highest forecasting accuracy.
Methodology
Inputs
- Project latitude and longitude
- Nameplate capacity
- Turbine make and model
- Site in-service date
- User-defined sub-group specification
- Aggregate power observations
Outputs
- Aggregate power (MW)
- Generating capacity (%)
- Aggregated capacity-weighted wind speed (m/s)
Aligned with Vaisala's commitment to using state-of-the-art, proven, and transparent methods, our regional wind forecast system is a combination of publicly available global and regional weather forecasts, high resolution surface data, and highly customized mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The result is an aggregate wind speed forecast converted into real world values of hourly power generation in megawatts using asset-specific manufacturer power curve data. Where aggregate power data is publicly available, Vaisala will incorporate observations to deliver statistically corrected power forecasts.
Customer Requirements
In order to provide regional wind power forecasting, Vaisala only requires you to select your region of interest and provide sub-region geographic boundary specifications or wind project lists.